Assembly Election Results : The beginning of the end for Modi, says Mamata

The euphoria on the social media spells it all…the going ahead is not going to be an easy one for Narendra Modi and his party in General Elections 2019. the victory has made them mark the Assembly polls as “the beginning of the end of the NDA government,” as a jubilant Mamata Banerjee claimed on national television after the results poured in on Tuesday.

A total of 273 seats are accounted for by the Hindi heartland spanning Jammu and Kashmir to Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Gujarat. Out of this, the BJP and its allies have a whopping share of 226 seats.

If Tuesday’s verdict in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh is to be taken in account along with the likelihood of Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party and other secular parties forming a United front with the Congress, there is a real possibility of the BJP losing anything from 80 to 100 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, predict psephologists. Not a very cushy prospect to look forward to indeed.

Even the possible electoral success of an ally in Telangana and possibility of increasing the NDA tally in the North East, West Bengal or Tamil Nadu will not account for even a fourth of the probable shortfall.

The Chhattisgarh victory has been the real stunner. The Congress had no regional hold in the state, Raman Singh Baghel was a formidable opponent. But Tuesday’s win has come as one of the biggest political upset in recent times. If the rest of India were to follow this lead, the BJP would be in troubled waters for sure.
The outcome of the Assembly polls have had a great impact on the future leadership of Rahul Gandhi and the Congress. Having just completed a year as Party President, Rahul Gandhi could not have hoped for a better reward before general Elections 2019. Electoral success in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh is an exceptional triumph. The BJP has been defeated when it’s the strongest, both in the terms of electoral successes and organizational network.

Rahul Gandhi, as a team leader, has thanked his two trusted lieutenants — Sachin Pilot and Kamal Nath in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, respectively. Both Pilot and Nath are now legitimate claimants for the Chief Minister’s post.

Though Ashok Kumar Gehlot is also staking his claim, he was only recently appointed as AICC general secretary in-charge of the party organization. The appointment is most important in the grand old party as its occupant is considered the most influential person after Gandhis. Gehlot’s office would face the line of fire in the forthcoming  general elections.

Meanwhile in Madhya Pradesh, Kamal Nath, senior-most Parliamentarian in the 16th Lok Sabha, has been working tirelessly since his appointment as Madhya Pradesh Congress president in May. Tactical ticket distribution, well planned moves have resulted in the huge turnaround in Madhya Pradesh where Shivraj Singh Chauhan was firmly entrenched. Though part of the old guard, Nath is cyber savvy and ensured a band of 500 dedicated personnel manned a parallel war room for social media outreach. This,  was in addition to the state Congress office, its election machinery and social media teams translated the hard work into ballots at the hustings.

The other Chief Ministerial aspirant, Jyotiraditya Scindia, despite staking his claim as Chief Minister, clearly does not have the support required to justify the same.

Infighting aside, the Congress victory has increased prospects of a secular united front against the “Hindutva” parties led by Mr. Modi.
The win has provided the Congress a star position within the United front. As a result the Mayawati-led BSP will no longer have the prime position it earlier claimed to have as king maker. It now remains to be seen what political huddle the secular United Front collaborators will go in to in the preparations for General Elections 2019.